The stakes in Sri Lanka’s ninth Presidential election

A Sri Lankan polling officer carries a poll field as he leaves for his designated polling sales space in Colombo on September 20, 2024, on the eve of the nation’s presidential election.
| Photograph Credit score: AP

Sri Lanka’s ninth Presidential election, which is slated for September 21, is being held beneath unusual circumstances for a couple of cause.

The nation goes to the polls two years after the nation witnessed a tumultuous political revolt preceded by an acute financial disaster. Even in 1953, the rising value of dwelling, drove the then Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake to step down, after the Left’s huge hartal. However his successor, John Kotelawala, assumed workplace beneath a lot much less painful situations than what Ranil Wickremesinghe confronted in July 2022 when Mr. Wickremesinghe grew to become President.

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This election additionally marks a churning that has taken place within the political enviornment. The United Nationwide Celebration (UNP), one of many established and conventional events alongside the now-marginalised Sri Lanka Freedom Celebration (SLFP), shouldn’t be within the race, despite the fact that its chief, Mr. Wickremesinghe is within the fray as an unbiased, hoping to attract assist from a broader political constituency. Whereas the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) dislodged the SLFP as a principal participant within the 2018 native authorities’ elections, the UNP’s decline was obvious within the 2020 parliamentary elections when the occasion might receive just one out of 225 seats, this too in an oblique method, i.e., the Nationwide Checklist. Simply because the SLPP has walked away with a considerable portion of the SLFP’s vote base, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), led by Sajith Premadasa, has executed it for the UNP.

Aside from Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Premadasa, there may be yet one more key contender within the fray — Anura Kumara Dissanayake, chief of the home-grown Lefitist occasion, Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP).

One of many curious components of the election is that the SLPP, after the 2022 well-liked rebellion, is being seen as a marginal participant. It stays a topic of debate on who the foremost beneficiary could be within the occasion of the SLPP’s votebase eroding considerably. There’s a notion that the JVP has reaped the political dividend out of the rebellion.

The Tamil issue

There may be each chance, this time, of the minorities, particularly Tamils (these within the north and the east, and within the hill nation) not voting en bloc for any one of many principal candidates. That is primarily due to divisions amongst Tamil events in rallying behind a selected candidate. Each Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Premadasa are banking on the assist of sure Tamil events. It’s for the primary time within the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi’s (ITAK) historical past that occasion member, P. Ariyanenthiran, has entered the presidential fray, despite the fact that outstanding Tamil figures had contested the elections earlier. However, Mr Ariyenthiran’s presence, as a “widespread” and unbiased Tamil candidate, doesn’t appear to have the complete assist of his occasion.

Below the circumstances, it’s to be seen whether or not Mr. Premadasa will repeat what he did in 2019 by bagging 70% of votes polled within the six electoral districts, the place ethnic minorities are dominant. (Final time, when because the UNP’s nominee, he secured about 42% of votes throughout the nation.) In truth, within the 2015 presidential election, the victory of Maithripala Sirisena towards the formidable and incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa, was attributed, amongst others, to the massive assist that he obtained within the Tamil-speaking areas.

One of many hanging options of the 2019 presidential election was that Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the SLPP had demonstrated that success was attainable with out a lot assist from the Tamils and Muslims. But, this time, no vital candidate has chosen to disregard them. Namal Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son and SLPP candidate, is speaking of remodeling the Jaffna peninsula right into a “thriving expertise and enterprise hub” just like the Silicon Valley. All that is because of the realisation that securing greater than 50% of the vote is a large problem.

Candidate profiles

Mr. Wickremesinghe, 75, is aware of properly that he can not get a greater probability to retain the submit which he obtained beneath extraordinary circumstances — this level is getting used to criticise him for not having turn out to be the President the “official method”. Although nobody is arguing that every one financial woes have turn out to be a factor of the previous, the Sri Lankan’s financial system is displaying indicators of stability, because of a bunch of things together with the preliminary assist offered by India and the implementation of an financial restoration programme supported by the Worldwide Financial Fund. Mr. Wickremesinghe deserves credit score for reaching what he has executed, as each Mr. Premadasa and Mr. Dissanayake turned down the provide made by Gotabaya Rajapaksa to type an interim authorities in early 2022 amid the financial disaster earlier than Mr. Wickremesinghe grew to become Prime Minister. However, the issue for him is that he doesn’t have the assist of a principal political power any longer.

Mr. Sajith, although bereft of the charisma of Mahinda Rajapaksa or the stature of Mr. Wickremesinghe, has, been capable of preserve his flock collectively for the final 5 years, a feat that even the extra charming Gamini Dissanayake couldn’t do within the early Nineteen Nineties after leaving the UNP. Dissanayake ultimately returned to his guardian occasion. As for the JVP’s chief, will probably be an enormous bounce if he is ready to web 25%-30% as neither he nor his formation crossed even the 4% mark within the earlier presidential and normal elections. It’s to be seen whether or not the ‘ingredient of strangeness’ can be evident within the outcome too.

ramakrishnan.t@thehindu.co.in