NEW DELHI: Summer season monsoon, which ended on Monday within the ‘above regular’ class after recording practically 8% larger than regular rainfall, is more likely to absolutely withdraw from the nation by mid-October and the winter monsoon will set in across the identical time (by Oct 17) within the southeast peninsula, the IMD stated on Tuesday. It additionally hinted at the potential of a harsh winter in north India, specifically northwest India, together with Delhi-NCR and adjoining central area, as La Nina situations are anticipated to kind throughout Oct-Nov.
La Nina is a local weather phenomena related to the periodic cooling of ocean floor temperatures within the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Although it’s linked to good monsoon rainfall within the Indian sub-continent, it remained absent through the southwest (summer time) monsoon months regardless of forecasts by totally different world fashions.
“There’s a 71% likelihood that La Nina situations will develop throughout Oct-Nov… The years when you’ve got La Nina, temperatures within the northern a part of the nation, specifically northwest India and adjoining central area, are under regular (colder than regular)… So, you’ll be able to have chilly wave situations throughout winter months,” stated IMD chief, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
He, nonetheless, underlined that its severity could be identified solely later because the La Nina situation continues to be weak and the Met division should monitor how a lot it is going to be strengthened in January or February. The IMD will observe it up and can be capable to come out with a extra exact forecast solely in November.
Good rainfall this 12 months, nonetheless, was primarily as a result of different components together with six depressions, 14 ‘low stress programs’ in Bay of Bengal and one cyclonic storm ‘Asna’ within the Arabian Sea.
