This can be a long-winded approach of claiming the market isn’t “fallacious.” It merely displays all obtainable info. If you happen to appropriately disagree with the market, you might be rewarded for that perception, by betting your self. U.S. customers have alternate options to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them underneath a regulatory settlement. If you happen to imagine the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the worth of the Trump contract, and b) is fallacious, you possibly can merely wager in opposition to her or him or them by going lengthy on Harris. Regardless that it’s not risk-free – Harris nonetheless must win in your wager to repay – should you thought her “actual” odds had been 55%, you’d be shopping for one thing value 55 cents for 40 cents at present. Even should you won’t be prepared to try this, different market individuals will. So if the Polymarket whale is certainly misinformed, now that we all know there’s a (doubtlessly misinformed) whale, you’d anticipate the chances to say no as merchants incorporate this new info. Until after all, the prediction markets are usually dependable and the whale hasn’t influenced them a lot.
