India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa in tussle to make WTC closing

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With 10 collection (26 Assessments) to go within the present World Take a look at Championship cycle, the race for the highest two spots is getting extra intense. Here’s a have a look at how the groups are positioned, and what their possibilities of qualifying are.

Sri Lanka
Share factors: 55.56, collection remaining: SA (two away Assessments), Aus (two at dwelling)

With a full 24 factors gained from their final two Assessments, Sri Lanka have made a powerful push in the direction of a top-two end on this WTC cycle. Their 4 remaining Assessments are in opposition to two opponents who’re additionally contenders for the ultimate. In the event that they win every of these matches and take dwelling 48 extra factors (take note over-rate deductions are at all times a risk), they are going to end on 69.23% and guarantee themselves of a spot within the closing no matter different outcomes. In the event that they lose one and win three they are going to find yourself at 61.54, which can nonetheless depart them with an opportunity of qualifying, relying on different outcomes.

India
Share factors: 74.24, collection remaining: NZ (three dwelling), Aus (5 away)

Their beautiful win in Kanpur has additional strengthened India’s place on the high of the desk. Wins in every of their remaining eight Assessments will take them to 85.09%, however the extra reasonable goal for them will probably be to make it possible for they get sufficient factors to seal their place within the WTC closing no matter different outcomes. For that, they want at the least 4 wins and two attracts (56 factors), which can take them to 67.54. South Africa can rise up to 69.44 in the event that they win every of their remaining six Assessments, however Australia can solely attain 64.04 with 4 wins and two attracts (assuming they lose one to India and draw two, and win the opposite 4 Assessments).

If India get fewer than 56 factors, then there’s a risk of them not being within the high two. As an illustration, in the event that they win 4 and draw one (52 factors), then it is attainable for Australia and South Africa to overhaul them.

Sri Lanka can end with greater than 67% too, however wins for them will probably be on the expense of factors for each Australia and South Africa. That may work in India’s favour as Australia and South Africa may then each end under India.

Bangladesh
Share factors: 34.38, collection remaining: WI (two away), SA (two dwelling)

The 2 defeats in India have damage Bangladesh badly – from 45.83% they’ve dropped to 34.38. Even when they win every of their 4 remaining Assessments, they are going to solely enhance to 56.25. Even that’s unlikely to be sufficient for a spot within the high two.

New Zealand
Share factors: 37.50, collection remaining: Ind (three away), Eng (three dwelling)

Although New Zealand can theoretically nonetheless end with a share as excessive as 64.29 in the event that they win all six Assessments, latest kind suggests they will not get wherever near that quantity. That is as a result of three of these Assessments are in India – simply the hardest project in Take a look at cricket – on the again of a 2-0 drubbing in Sri Lanka. Even when they win 4 of these six Assessments and lose two, they are going to end at solely 50%.

Australia
Share factors: 62.50, collection remaining: Ind (5 dwelling), SL (two away)

At the moment in second place at 62.5%, Australia can end on a most of 76.32 in the event that they win every of their remaining seven Assessments. The 2 groups in opposition to whom they play their remaining collection, India and Sri Lanka, are additionally robust contenders for the ultimate, so wins in opposition to them will doubly assist Australia’s trigger. 5 wins will carry their share to 65.79, however India and South Africa can nonetheless go previous them. Issues will probably be clearer by the point they begin the collection in opposition to India, although, because the guests would have completed their three dwelling Assessments in opposition to New Zealand.

South Africa
Share factors: 38.89, collection remaining: SL (two dwelling), Pak (two dwelling), Ban (two away)

If South Africa win every of their six remaining Assessments they are going to end with 69.44%, which can absolutely be sufficient for qualification, as just one out of India or Australia can go previous that quantity. 5 wins and a draw will depart them with 63.89, which can nonetheless preserve them in rivalry, whereas 5 wins and a defeat will decrease the share marginally to 61.11, which can nonetheless give them an opportunity if different outcomes go their means.

England
Share factors: 42.19, collection remaining: Pak (three away), NZ (three away)

England’s surprising defeat within the closing Take a look at in opposition to Sri Lanka means they’ll not breach the 60% mark on this cycle. The utmost they’ll obtain with wins of their six remaining Assessments is 57.95. For them to qualify with that rating, they are going to want a number of different outcomes to work of their favour.

Pakistan
Share factors: 19.05, collection remaining: Eng (three dwelling), SA (two away), WI (two dwelling)

Pakistan’s shambolic collection in opposition to Bangladesh – not solely did they lose 2-0, additionally they dropped six factors as a consequence of gradual over charges – means their share has dropped from 36.66% firstly of the collection to 19.05. From right here, the utmost they’ll obtain is 59.52, in the event that they win every of their seven remaining Assessments. Their latest performances do not counsel that Pakistan will get near attaining this.

West Indies
Share: 18.52, collection remaining: Ban (two dwelling), Pak (two away)

West Indies have already performed 4 collection and have solely scored 20 factors out of 108. Even when they win their final 4 Assessments, they’ll solely end on 43.59%.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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