Earth dodges ‘city-killer’ asteroid — but Nasa says the Moon might not be so lucky

Close name: Earth spared from asteroid impression, but the Moon is in danger

For weeks, it was the rock tour that had the world on edge. NASA’s eyes have been locked on asteroid 2024 YR4, an enormous house rock as soon as feared to be on a collision course with Earth. The numbers saved altering—1 in 32 odds at one level, sufficient to make even veteran astronomers uneasy.
But now, after two months of intense calculations, scientists have breathed a collective sigh of reduction. On Tuesday, NASA formally dominated Earth secure from YR4, confirming that it’s going to merely fly by in 2032 and pose no risk for the subsequent century. “That’s the outcome we expected all along,” mentioned Paul Chodas, head of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
It’s a shocking reversal. Just final week, the asteroid—estimated to be as much as 295 ft huge—had a 1.5% likelihood of slamming into our planet. Had it struck, the blast would have been equal to eight megatons of TNT—500 occasions the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. Entire cities might have been worn out.
The numbers ultimately corrected themselves, as consultants predicted, bringing the impression danger down to close zero. But whereas Earth has dodged a cosmic bullet, there’s one other drawback—YR4 might be heading straight for the Moon.
NASA warns the asteroid now has a 1.7% likelihood of hitting our lunar neighbor, a serious soar from earlier estimates. And not like Earth, the Moon has no ambiance to defend it. If YR4 makes contact, it will strike at 30,000 miles per hour, leaving a crater as much as 6,500 ft throughout—a recent scar on the lunar floor.
Still, scientists consider these odds will probably drop as effectively. The James Webb Space Telescope will quickly zero in on YR4’s true dimension earlier than it disappears from view in the coming months.
For astronomers, this brush with disaster wasn’t only a scare—it was a possibility. “While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity” for examine, NASA famous.
In the finish, Earth bought lucky. The Moon? That story isn’t over but.