Poland voted on Sunday (May 18, 2025) in a tight presidential election that will likely be decisive for the way forward for the nation’s pro-EU authorities as nicely as for abortion and LGBTQ rights.
Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is anticipated to win 30% of the vote, in response to opinion polls, forward of nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki on 25%.
That would put each by way of to a run-off on June 1 at a fraught second for Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on, far-right populists proceed to make electoral good points and ties with Washington are below pressure.
Voting ends at 9:00 p.m. (1900 GMT), when exit polls are anticipated. The remaining official outcomes of the competition, in which 13 candidates are operating, are anticipated on Monday (May 19, 2025).
“These are very important elections,” voter Marcin Woloszynski, a 42-year-old economist, informed AFP.
“They offer two diametrically opposed visions of Poland… a democratic, European, open, confident, honest Poland on one side, and the opposite on the other,” he mentioned after casting his poll in Warsaw, the place help for Mr. Trzaskowski is especially excessive.
Ever since Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition got here to energy in 2023, key authorities initiatives have been blocked by vetoes from nationalist President Andrzej Duda.
Foreign coverage, social points
The electoral marketing campaign in Poland — a member of each the European Union and NATO — has largely revolved round overseas coverage, showcasing a conflict of philosophies over Poland’s engagement with the EU and the United States.
But social points have additionally performed a serious half. Mr. Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to help abortion and LGBTQ rights.
“These elections are about rights for women and minorities, rights for children and animals,” mentioned Anna Rusztynska-Wolska, a 69-year-old physician, after voting. “They are about security in the European Union and in the world because the more Poland is a country that respects the rule of law (and is) rich and well-managed, the better it will be for all of us,” she mentioned.
The former ruling Law and Justice occasion (PiS), which backs Mr. Nawrocki, was steadily at odds with Poland’s Western allies and EU establishments in Brussels over rule-of-law issues.
Mr. Nawrocki, 42, is an admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump. He mentioned Mr. Trump informed him, “You will win” after they met on the White House earlier this month.
The key to the election may very well be whether or not supporters of Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right candidate polling in third place with round 12%, forged their ballots for Mr. Nawrocki in the second spherical.
Mr. Mentzen is a eurosceptic libertarian staunchly against abortion and migrants.
He has accused the nation’s a million Ukrainian refugees of profiting from Poland.
Echoing a few of Mr. Mentzen’s rhetoric, self-employed 25-year-old Radoslaw Wiecek mentioned he didn’t need Poland to be “totally subject to the EU”.
Speaking on the eve of the vote, Mr. Wiecek mentioned he needed “a fresh wind” to finish the dominance of the 2 important political teams — Law and Justice and the Civic Coalition (KO) that backs Mr. Trzaskowski.
For Anna Urbanska, a 74-year-old pensioner, the important thing electoral difficulty is immigration, which has risen sharply in latest years. “I don’t want these immigrants to be allowed in here, in Poland. I want us to be able to live more peacefully,” she mentioned.
‘Government could be paralysed’
The governing coalition is hopeful a victory by Mr. Trzaskowski would allow it to fulfil its hitherto undelivered marketing campaign pledges.
Mr. Tusk’s administration has been prevented from easing Poland’s stringent abortion legal guidelines and introducing different modifications by the president’s energy of veto, to the frustration of some voters.
Poland’s head of state is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, steers overseas coverage and might introduce and veto laws.
“With Mr. Nawrocki as president, the Government would be paralysed and that could eventually lead to the fall of the ruling coalition,” mentioned political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska.
His victory might imply “the return of the populists with renewed force” on the subsequent common election, she informed AFP.
The stakes are excessive for Europe.
Under Mr. Tusk, a former EU chief, Poland has grown extra essential on the continent, reinforcing its place as a key voice on NATO’s japanese flank in opposition to Russia.
Ms. Materska-Sosnowska mentioned the poll was elementary for “attempts to stop the anti-democratic, populist trend running through Europe”.
Published – May 18, 2025 11:46 pm IST
