BTC Price Nears $107K as Ceasefire Lifts Markets, Powell Eyed

By Francisco Rodrigues (All instances ET until indicated in any other case)

Crypto costs rose on Wednesday, using the identical reduction wave that lifted international equities after Iran and Israel accepted a U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

With the specter of an instantaneous oil provide crunch fading, merchants moved again into threat belongings. The worth of bitcoin

rose to close $107,000, including 1.7% up to now 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained 1%.

That advance could also be short-lived.

“’Optimism about the fragile ceasefire holding between Iran and Israel has bubbled through markets, lifting equities, but more doubts are now creeping in about the truce holding,” mentioned Susannah Streeter, the top of cash markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“A leaked report from U.S. Intelligence casting doubt on the effectiveness of the U.S. strikes in crippling Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, has led to some worries that military action could resume,” she mentioned.

Still, the ceasefire wasn’t the one cause for the rally. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell advised House lawmakers that the central financial institution is being affected person earlier than transferring ahead with interest-rate cuts. Powell identified that inflation continues to be elevated and will face further stress from tariffs in coming months.

“Powell’s emphasis on a wait-and-see” strategy underscores short-term uncertainty in fee coverage,” Bitunix analysts wrote in an emailed assertion. “The remarks provide markets with flexibility and are overall supportive of risk assets, but investors should closely monitor upcoming tariff developments and inflation data.”

U.S. consumer-confidence knowledge softened, pulling two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of three.78% and elevating the perceived possibilities of a fee lower in July to about 20%, based on the CME’s FedWatch software. That’s up from about 13% every week in the past. On Polymarket, merchants are weighing an 18% probability of a lower.

Powell will later in the present day testify earlier than a Senate committee. Traders will hold a detailed eye on the testimony, which comes as President Donald Trump retains stress on the Fed to decrease rates of interest, posting yesterday they need to be “at least two to three points lower.”

Crypto derivatives desks present a impartial strategy across the 27 June expiry: Traders offered straddles and brief places near $105,000 and $100,000, suggesting an expectation of tight worth motion, Jake O, OTC dealer at Wintermute, mentioned.

Call choice shopping for eyeing $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September factors, nonetheless, to a modest bullish inclination, Jake added. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • June 25: Core (CORE), an EVM-compatible layer-1 blockchain, will activate the Theseus laborious fork (launch V1.0.17) on its mainnet.
  • June 25: ZIGChain (ZIG) mainnet will go stay.
  • June 30: CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, permitting buying and selling in bitcoin, ether and main U.S. fairness indices with contracts holdable for as much as 5 years.
• Macro
  • Day 2 of two: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit in The Hague, the Netherlands, the place heads of state, overseas and protection ministers of 32 allies and companions will meet to debate safety, protection spending and cooperation. President Trump is anticipated to elucidate what dedication to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty means to him.
  • June 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies earlier than the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on the semiannual financial coverage report. Livestream hyperlink.
  • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases May manufactured sturdy items orders knowledge.
    • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. 8.5% vs. Prev. -6.3%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. -7.5%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 0.2%
  • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (remaining) Q1 GDP knowledge.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Est. -0.2% vs. Prev. 2.4%
    • GDP Price Index QoQ Final Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3%
    • GDP Sales QoQ Final Est. -2.9% vs. Prev. 3.3%
  • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance coverage knowledge for the week ended June 21.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 245K vs. Prev. 245K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1950K vs. Prev. 1945K
  • June 26, 3 p.m.: The Bank of Mexico pronounces its rate of interest resolution.
    • Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 8% Prev. 8.5%
• Earnings (Estimates based mostly on FactSet knowledge)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on decreasing the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This goals to match decreased voter participation and assist well-supported proposals cross extra simply, with out affecting non-constitutional proposals, which stay at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded fee card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • June 25, 5:30 p.m.: A BNB Super Meetup is being hosted in New York.
• Unlocks
  • June 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating provide price $17.13 million.
  • July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating provide price $122.31 million.
  • July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating provide price $10.81 million.
  • July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating provide price $10.31 million.
  • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating provide price $53.72 million.
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating provide price $14.32 million.
• Token Launches
  • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).
  • June 26: Sahara AI (SAHARA) to be listed on OKX, Bitget, MEXC, CoinW, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation convention (previously recognized as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique occasion held in Washington on Sept. 10 that permits common counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to fulfill with public officers answerable for crypto laws and regulatory oversight. Space is proscribed. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration by way of July 17.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• The iconic NFT Wall in Williamsburg is now full, with memecoin mascot Joycat (MOG) taking the ultimate spot.
• The final “White Brick” was positioned anonymously, slotted proper between two CryptoPunks, cementing meme tradition into NFT historical past.

• The collector referred to as MOG “the natural heir” to the NFT motion, linking punk provenance to memetic momentum.
• Artist Lorenzo Masnah mentioned the mural’s punchline was intentional: “And I was excited to put this laughing cat up there because if you don’t quite understand memeconomics—the future of digital currency and art—JOKE’S ON YOU!”
• The Joycat picture marks a symbolic shift from identity-driven NFTs to pure cultural velocity.
• The NFT Wall now stands as a prophecy and landmark as a snapshot of crypto’s chaotic, inventive and ungovernable future.

Derivatives Positioning

• The annualized three-month BTC futures foundation on offshore exchanges has superior barely to five% as sentiment stabilizes with BTC’s fast rebound above $100K.
• The stage, nonetheless, stays under May highs above 7%. An analogous sample is seen in ETH.
• BTC and ETH foundation on the CME stay under 10%, with ETH barely pricier than BTC.
• Perpetual funding charges for many main cash, together with BCH and APT, proceed to color a reasonably bullish image.
• On Deribit, the BTC put-call ratio rose, at the very least partially because of investor curiosity in cash-secured places, a yield-generation technique.
• Flows tracked by Wintermute recommend rangeplay between $100K-$105K forward of Friday’s expiry.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.51% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $106,693.69 (24hrs: +1.36%)
• ETH is down 1.2% at $2,421.55 (24hrs: +0.19%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.5% at 2,988.28 (24hrs: +0.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 3.14%
• BTC funding fee is at 0.0048% (5.2626% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.28% at 98.14
• Gold futures are up 0.07% at $3,336.20
• Silver futures are down 0.10% at $35.69
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.39% at 38,942.07
• Hang Seng closed up 1.23% at 24,474.67
• FTSE is up 0.07% at 8,765.08
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.06% at 5,294.01
• DJIA closed on Tuesday up 1.19% at 43,089.02
• S&P 500 closed up 1.11% at 6,092.18
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.43% at 19,912.53
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.41% at 26,718.62
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.78% at 2,631.38
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury fee is unchanged at 4.3%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,145.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 22,428.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.11% at 43,378.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.52% (0.38%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02269 (-1.78%)
• Hashrate (seven-day transferring common): 799 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $54
• Total Fees: 6.16 BTC / $650,033
• CME Futures Open Interest: 156,455 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 32 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.05%

Technical Analysis

• The Binance-listed XRP/BTC pair continues to commerce in a falling wedge, recognized by converging trendlines marking a sequence of decrease highs and decrease lows.
• The converging nature of the strains signifies that the downtrend is steadily shedding steam.
• An eventual breakout is taken into account an indication of bullish pattern reversal.

Cypto Equities

Effective June 30, the worth for Galaxy shall be for its Nasdaq itemizing denominated in U.S. {dollars} moderately than the Canadian-dollar-denominated itemizing on the TSX.

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $377.02 (+2.68%), +1.45% at $382.47 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $344.82 (+12.1%), +1.3% at $349.30
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $222.65 (-15.49%), +3.93% at $231.40
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.07 (+6.66%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.88 (+4.94%), +1.68% at $15.13
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.02 (+8.09%), +0.9% at $10.11
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.21 (+7.58%), +0.74% at $12.3
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.04 (+13.45%), +0.6% at $10.10
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.42 (+7.35%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.89 (-0.23%), unchanged in pre-market
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $34.16 (+18.73%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily internet flows: $588.6 million
• Cumulative internet flows: $47.58 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.23 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily internet flows: $71.3 million
• Cumulative internet flows: $4.09 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~4.02 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The cumulative worth of the high-risk DeFi loans, those who commerce inside 5% of their liquidation worth, has dropped sharply by $242 million in two weeks.
• The decline signifies more healthy market circumstances and low odds of huge liquidation cascades in DeFi markets.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin’s Upcoming $14B Options Expiry Marked by Surge in Put-Call Ratio. What Does It Indicate? (CoinDesk): Traders are loading up on draw back safety forward of a $14 billion bitcoin choices expiry, however market flows nonetheless trace at mildly bullish expectations close to time period.
• Metaplanet Raises $515M, Blockchain Group Adds $4.8M in Bitcoin Treasury Equity Moves (CoinDesk): Metaplanet accomplished 10% of its 555 Million Plan on Day 1, issuing 54 million shares, whereas The Blockchain Group raised $4.8 million in an at-the-market-type fairness issuance settlement with TOBAM.
• Deep Sea Mining Firm Goes Deep on Bitcoin With $1.2B BTC Treasury Plan (CoinDesk): Oslo-based Green Minerals (GEM) mentioned Wednesday it paid 4.25 million Norwegian kroner ($420,000) to amass 4 BTC, its first buy since saying a bitcoin treasury technique on Monday.
• China Seizes Moment to Globalize Yuan as Dollar Doubts Mount (Bloomberg): New Chinese directives goal to open monetary channels and deepen the yuan’s position in international markets. By easing controls and attracting overseas capital, Beijing hopes to problem greenback dominance.
• Israel-Iran Conflict Spurs China to Reconsider Russian Gas Pipeline (The Wall Street Journal): Russian President Vladimir Putin is anticipated to boost the stalled Power of Siberia 2 gasoline hyperlink when he visits his Chinese counterpart in September, as China weighs alternate options to unstable Middle East vitality routes.
• UK to Purchase Fighter Jets Capable of Carrying Tactical Nuclear Weapons (Reuters): The U.Okay. will purchase 12 Lockheed Martin F-35A jets, restoring airborne nuclear functionality and strengthening its NATO contributions, based on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s workplace.

In the Ether