India’s shrimp exports set to fall 15-18% amid Trump tariff hike; $5 billion trade at danger: Crisil

Indian shrimp exports are anticipated to decline by 15-18 per cent this fiscal 12 months after a steep hike in US import tariffs, in accordance to a Crisil Ratings report. The enhance, which took impact on August 27, has raised the general responsibility burden on Indian shrimp coming into the US to 58.26 per cent. The rankings company mentioned the event will weigh on pricing energy, whilst exporters try to diversify their product portfolio and develop into different markets, as quoted by information company ANI. Prior to the hike, Indian shipments have been already topic to a 50 per cent reciprocal tariff, together with a 5.77 per cent countervailing responsibility and a 2.49 per cent anti-dumping responsibility. Exporters had front-loaded shipments within the first quarter of FY26 to beat the tariff deadline, however revenues — which have been flat for 4 years — at the moment are projected to drop 18-20 per cent year-on-year. India’s shrimp exports have been valued at round $5 billion in FY25, with the US accounting for practically 48 per cent. Crisil additionally mentioned that exporters’ working revenue margins will slender by 150-200 foundation factors, as larger prices can’t be totally handed on to clients. Margins are probably to fall to 5.0-5.5 per cent this fiscal, a ten-year low, due to tariff pressures, decrease capability utilisation and decreased gross sales of premium shrimp varieties that usually go to the US. The report, primarily based on an evaluation of 63 rated exporters representing 55 per cent of business revenues, warned that weaker earnings and slimmer margins will harm debt safety metrics and credit score profiles. The US has lengthy been probably the most enticing marketplace for Indian shrimp, providing steady demand and worthwhile margins. Exporters had continued supplying regardless of current duties and even a ten per cent reciprocal tariff imposed in April 2025, with American patrons absorbing a part of the associated fee. However, the most recent sharp enhance locations India at a marked drawback in contrast to rivals corresponding to Ecuador, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, which face decrease US tariff obstacles.