The story up to now:
The Ukraine battle has witnessed dramatic developments in current weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump has introduced in a 180-degree shift in U.S’s coverage in the direction of the war. Disagreements between Kyiv and Washington on easy methods to finish the war have led to an unprecedented public spat between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mr. Trump in the Oval Office, following which the U.S. paused all navy help for the war-torn European nation. Within a day, Mr. Zelenskyy ‘regretted’ the spat, introduced Kyiv’s readiness to declare a partial truce and work with Mr. Trump to attain lasting peace. Europe appears caught off guard as the geopolitical glacial plates are shifting quick. Russia is watching and ready, whereas the war grinds on.
Also Read: What Trump 2.0 means for Russia and Ukraine: In graphics
How did the war start?
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he most likely thought the war can be over inside days. So did Ukraine’s western companions, together with the U.S., who vacated their embassies in Kyiv proper earlier than the war started. But when Ukraine, armed with U.S.-supplied weapons, denied a fast victory to the Russians, the West stepped in. The U.S., beneath the Biden administration, adopted a two-pronged strategy in the direction of the war — impose biting sanctions on Russia to weaken its war equipment and economic system, and arm Ukraine to the enamel to combat the Russians on the battlefield. “We want to see Russia weakened,” Mr. Biden’s Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin mentioned in April 2022. This strategy was comparatively profitable in the war’s preliminary part. By September 2022, Russian troops have been pressured to withdraw from the settlements that they had captured in the Kharkiv Oblast in the northeast. In November, Russia pulled again forces from Kherson metropolis and elements of Mykolaiv on the proper financial institution of the Dnipro River in the south.
But in between Russia’s retreats from Kharkiv and Kherson, President Vladimir Putin had doubled down on the war: he annexed 4 Ukrainian oblasts — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — and introduced a partial mobilisation. The message from the Kremlin was that it was able to combat an extended war. On the economic system entrance, Mr. Putin pivoted in the direction of Asia the place the enormous markets of China, India and others helped Moscow offset the impression of the sanctions.
Where does the war stand in the present day?
In 2023, Russia steadily turned the tide of the war, inch by bloody inch. It took Soledar in January and Bakhmut in May, after a months-long marketing campaign. In 2024, Russia expedited its battlefield advances by capturing Avdiivka in February, Krasnohorivka in September and Vuhledar in October. At no level since 2023, had Ukraine appeared succesful of defeating the Russians and recapturing the misplaced territories. In June 2023, Ukraine launched a much-awaited counteroffensive, with superior western weapons, in the south, nevertheless it fizzled out in the face of Russia’s dogged defence.
Also Read: A high-stakes energy play — Trump, Putin and the Ukraine war
In August 2024, Ukraine captured some 1,000 sq. km of Russian territory in the Kursk area in a shock assault aimed toward mounting stress on Russia’s advancing troops in the east. But Russia refused to stroll into the entice and pressed forward with its offensive in the east, the mushy stomach of Ukraine’s resistance. In 2024, Russian forces captured an estimated 4,168 sq. km in each Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk. In January 2025, Russian troops seized Velyka Novosilka and elements of Toretsk. They have additionally been attempting to encircle Pokrovsk. Ukraine in current months stepped up drone and missile assaults deep inside Russian territory in addition to in the Black Sea, hurting Russia’s safety. But on the battlefield, it has been on the backfoot for over two years.
Why has Trump modified America’s Ukraine coverage?
Mr. Trump had promised throughout his election marketing campaign that he would convey the war to a fast finish. After taking workplace in January, he moved quick. First, Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Defence Secretary, informed the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, an alliance of 57 international locations and the EU put in place by the Biden administration to assist Kyiv, that Ukraine wouldn’t turn into a NATO member. He additionally dominated out American safety ensures for Ukraine and mentioned any European assure wouldn’t be lined beneath NATO’s collective safety clause. Immediately after Mr. Hegseth’s feedback, Mr. Trump held a phone name with Mr. Putin. Within days, Russia and the U.S. had two rounds of direct talks. Mr. Trump appears decided to reset America’s ties with Russia.
One rationalization for this strategy is that the U.S. doesn’t see Russia as a risk any extra. The U.S., in that sense, is breaking with the post-Second World War trans-Atlantic consensus, and goes again to the pre-First World War offshore balancing (the U.S. is protected by the world’s two best oceans and shares borders with two meek powers in the south and north). In this Realist worldview, China is the systemic risk to the U.S’s primacy and a Sino-Russian alliance might make that risk perilous. It would entail a reorientation of America’s coverage in the direction of Russia — in a reverse order of what Henry Kissinger did in the Nineteen Seventies when he and President Richard Nixon exploited the Sino-Soviet cut up and reached out to Beijing. In this grand reset plan, Ukraine is only a hindrance. Mr. Trump believes Ukraine can’t win the war even with American help, and needs Kyiv to take the deal the U.S. plans to make with Russia and finish the war.
How does Europe have a look at the developments?
Europe appears to be struggling to return to phrases with what’s occurring. When Ukraine was promised NATO membership by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2008, Germany and France have been hesitant. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and supported a riot in Ukraine’s east, Germany and France performed a task in negotiating the Minsk course of to convey peace to Ukraine. But the U.S. was not very eager on the Minsk accords, and continued to again Ukraine militarily. No facet — Kyiv, the separatists in the east, and Russia — carried out the accords. The disaster escalated right into a full-blown war on Europe’s watch. After the war started, Europe needed to pay an enormous financial price. The Nord Stream pipeline, linking Russia throughout the Baltic Sea to Germany, was blown away (more than likely by the Ukrainians, based on American media). The stoppage of the circulate of low cost Russian fuel triggered a cost-of-living disaster and de-industrialisation, which deepened public antipathy in the direction of Europe’s political institution in a number of international locations. For instance, Germany is in recession for the third consecutive yr, and the German far-right is ascendant.
Also Read: Endless war: On the Russia-Ukraine war
And now, the U.S., which was in the lead of the pro-Ukraine alliance, is breaking with the coverage and instantly speaking to Russia, excluding each Ukraine and Europe. European international locations have referred to as two summit-level conferences since Mr. Trump got here to workplace, and promised to do extra to assist Ukraine. But the query is whether or not Europe, which itself is split, has the capability to offer safety ensures to Ukraine with out America’s backing. At current, Europe doesn’t have many choices however to go together with the American plan. Europe additionally has larger issues than Ukraine. It is frightened about the future of NATO as the Trump administration is reorienting America’s post-War international and safety coverage.
Where does it depart Ukraine?
Ukraine has misplaced greater than 20% of its territories to Russia and tens of hundreds of troopers have been killed in the war. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the nation. Its economic system is in shambles, and the vitality sector is dealing with a serious disaster as a result of of Russia’s repeated bombing of its infrastructure. The nation relies on exterior provides to satisfy not less than half of its weapons necessities — together with artillery and ammunition. Ukraine can also be dealing with a manpower crunch on the battlefield (Mr. Trump says Ukraine is “running low on soldiers”, whereas Vice President J.D. Vance says Russia has a “huge numerical advantage”).
The nation is due to this fact in dire straits. The U.S. says it’s not sensible to anticipate Ukraine to retake its misplaced territories — the Ukrainians and Europeans would grudgingly agree. The U.S. promised NATO membership to Ukraine in 2008. In 2025, the U.S. says Ukraine can neglect about NATO membership. Ukraine desires not less than safety ensures, however America is reluctant to offer any such assure. So, if Ukraine continues the war, it might lose extra territories. If it stops the war, it can have to take action on the phrases set by Russia and America. In the outset, no good choices left for Mr. Zelenskyy and his Generals. Great powers combat proxy wars when their pursuits conflict. Great powers reset ties when their pursuits align. The pawns and proxies endure. Ukraine’s story shouldn’t be totally different.
Published – March 06, 2025 08:30 am IST
