Bitcoin Traders Eye Upside as BTC Price Holds Above $110K: Crypto Daybook Americas

By James Van Straten (All occasions ET until indicated in any other case)

As August attracts towards an in depth, bitcoin BTC$111,782.47 bulls might welcome the top of a modest pullback, with the biggest cryptocurrency down round 4% for the month and 12% off its all-time excessive of $124,500.

For now, it is little modified round $110,580, up lower than 0.5% over 24 hours whereas ether (ETH) has added 3.4%. The CoinDesk 20 index, a measure of the broader market, rose 2.7% in the identical interval.

A damaging finish to August would halt a streak of 4 consecutive inexperienced months, the longest run since March final yr. Encouragingly, August has held up higher than within the previous three years, and September ought to convey a pickup in buying and selling exercise as the vacation season winds down.

On-chain information reveals bitcoin merchants used the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), presently $108,800, as help. This metric tracks the typical acquisition value of cash moved on-chain previously 155 days and excludes alternate reserves. In bull markets, the STH RP typically acts as a key help stage.

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures earnings or losses on cash youthful than 155 days, signifies that short-term buyers are presently promoting at a loss. Historically, this habits tends to look close to native market bottoms. But capitulation has but to be seen.

Meanwhile, the choices market factors to a “max pain” stage at $116,000. Max ache is the strike value at which the biggest variety of choices expire nugatory, usually inflicting the best monetary ache to choice holders and best profit to choices sellers. With this stage above the spot value, it suggests upside aid might be on the horizon.

Beyond crypto, U.S. commerce tensions escalated once more as Washington imposed 50% tariffs on India, doubling earlier duties after talks broke down. The transfer, geared toward curbing India’s purchases of Russian oil, highlights strained ties between President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Analysts warn of falling exports, job losses and a possible 1% drag on GDP progress.

For bitcoin merchants, the important thing vary to look at is $113,500 to $117,200, the place the CME futures hole stays open. Historically, such gaps are usually crammed, making this zone one to observe carefully. Stay alert.

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 27, 3 a.m.: Mantle Network (MNT), an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will roll out its mainnet improve to model 1.3.1, enabling help for Ethereum’s Prague replace and introducing new options for platform customers and builders.
• Macro
  • Aug. 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July unemployment price information.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • Aug. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (2nd Estimate) Q2 GDP information.
    • Core PCE Prices QoQ st. 2.6% vs. Prev. 3.5%
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. -0.5%
    • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2% vs. Prev. 3.8%
    • GDP Sales QoQEst. 6.3% vs. Prev. -3.1%
    • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 3.7%
    • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  • Aug. 28, 1:30 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Statistics Institute releases July unemployment price information.
    • Unemployment Rate Prev. 7.3%
  • Aug. 28, 6:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will converse on “Payments” on the Economic Club of Miami Dinner, Miami, Fla. Watch reside.
  • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases Q2 GDP information.
    • GDP Growth Rate Annualized Est. -0.6% vs. Prev. 2.2%
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.5%
  • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases July client revenue and expenditure information.
    • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.8%
    • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.6%
    • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.3%
  • Aug. 29, 11 a.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases July unemployment price information.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 8.9% vs. Prev. 8.6%
• Earnings (Estimates based mostly on FactSet information)
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
  • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 28: Jupiter JUP$0.4922 to unlock 1.78% of its circulating provide value $26.36 million.
  • Sep. 1: Sui SUI$3.4466 to launch 1.25% of its circulating provide value $153.1 million.
  • Sep. 2: Ethena ENA$0.6159 to launch 0.64% of its circulating provide value $25.64 million.
  • Sep. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating provide value $13.26 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 27: Bitlayer (BTR) to listing on Kraken, KuCoin and LBank
  • Aug. 27: sBTC (SBTC) to listing on Moso.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation convention (previously identified as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique occasion held in Washington on Sept. 10 that enables normal counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to satisfy with public officers answerable for crypto laws and regulatory oversight. Space is restricted. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration by Sept. 1.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Cronos CRO$0.2385 defied Tuesday’s bearish crypto sentiment, rallying greater than 56% after Crypto.com and Trump Media (DJT) mentioned they deliberate to create a $6.4 billion CRO treasury firm.
• Crypto treasury bulletins have occurred virtually each day over the previous month as corporations start to undertake and adapt the method pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR).
• Still, the worth motion typically fails to match what could be perceived as a bullish occasion. When Verb Technology Co. (VERB) introduced a $558 million non-public placement to ascertain a toncoin TON$3.1861 treasury, TON virtually instantly fell by round 10%.
• This CRO deal is completely different. Firstly it’s tied to Trump Media, an organization linked to President Donald Trump, however secondly — and arguably extra importantly — it offers a use case to the cronos token that was beforehand used predominately as an alternate token for Crypto.com.
• The deal contains the creation of a brand new rewards system on Truth Social that can permit customers to transform the platform’s “gems” into CRO tokens, with additional plans to allow subscription funds and discounted providers utilizing CRO.
• Bloomberg famous that Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural committee and likewise visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago house after the election victory.
• CRO presently trades at $0.225 regardless of being down at $0.141 final week, the information lifted 24 hour buying and selling quantity up by 1,300% to greater than $1 billion as it turned a market outlier whereas bitcoin and ether languished close to important ranges of help.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin open curiosity (OI) throughout high derivatives venues has began to slide, which is consistent with the downward value motion over the previous few days, implying merchants are actively exiting their leveraged positions.
• BTC OI now stands at $30.3 billion, simply shy of the all time excessive at $32.6 billion, Velo information reveals. Three-month annualized foundation continues to be rising, and is presently 8%- 9% throughout all exchanges, implying that the idea commerce continues to be worthwhile.
• In choices, bitcoin’s upward-sloping implied volatility curve suggests the market expects long-term volatility to be greater than short-term, whereas different metrics level to a extra quick bearish outlook.
• Specifically, the latest transfer of the 25 delta skew into damaging territory for near-term maturities signifies a transparent shift in market sentiment, with merchants paying a premium for places over calls to achieve draw back safety.
• The bearish sentiment is confirmed by the 24-hour put/name quantity, which reveals a major skew in direction of places, one other signal merchants are actively hedging in opposition to or speculating on a value decline.
• Funding price APRs throughout main perpetual swap venues are beginning to bounce again at round 8%-10% annualized, based on Velo information.
• BTC annualized funding on Binance turned damaging (-0.39%) for a brief interval right now earlier than bouncing again to round 10%. This signifies that whereas there might have been pockets of bearish sentiment, the general market development is beginning to be extra supportive by merchants prepared to pay a premium to wager on a value enhance.
• Coinglass information reveals $266 million in 24 hour liquidations, skewed 58% in direction of shorts. ETH ($99 million), BTC ($47 million) and SOL ($20 million) have been the leaders by way of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap signifies $111,593 as a core liquidation stage to observe in case of a value rise.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.34% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $110,981.61 (24hrs: +0.72%)
• ETH is up 0.41% at $4,605.94 (24hrs: +3.56%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.11% at 4,130.44 (24hrs: +3.15%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.93%
• BTC funding price is at 0.0076% (8.3297% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.37% at 98.59
• Gold futures are unchanged at $3,431.20
• Silver futures are down 0.65% at $38.35
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.3% at 42,520.27
• Hang Seng closed down 1.27% at 25,201.76
• FTSE is unchanged at 9,273.12
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.16% at 5,392.10
• DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.3% at 45,418.07
• S&P 500 closed up 0.41% at 6,465.94
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.44% at 21,544.27
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.6% at 28,339.88
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.43% at 2,715.37
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury price is up 1.5 bps at 4.271%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,485.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,596.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,516.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.03% (-0.29%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.04129 (0.32%)
• Hashrate (seven-day shifting common): 960 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $54.07
• Total charges: 3.19 BTC / $351,661
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,600 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 32.8 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.28%

Technical Analysis

• The SOL-BTC weekly chart is approaching a key resistance stage that, in the meanwhile, is wanting more likely to be damaged.
• This SOL power is extra of a results of a bullish RSI divergence that appears to be already in play, as confirmed by the magnitude of the transfer.
• The ratio acts as a very good proxy for the power of altcoins usually, and a confirmed break within the pair would sign continued power in choose altcoins relative to BTC.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $351.36 (+2.38%), -0.6% at $349.26 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $308.48 (+0.81%), -0.28% at $307.62
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $129.05 (+3.04%), -0.46% at $128.45
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.72 (+0.69%), +0.36% at $24.81
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $66.08 (+1.38%), -0.42% at $65.80
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.84 (+2.86%), -0.63% at $15.74
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.69 (+3.09%), -0.88% at $13.57
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.04 (+2.63%), +0.36% at $14.09
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.68 (+2.43%), -0.41% at $9.64
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.39 (+2.73%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.79 (+2.56%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.98 (+2.74%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.92 (+3.91%), -1.2% at $19.68

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily web flows: $88.1 million
• Cumulative web flows: $54.08 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily web flows: $455 million
• Cumulative web flows: $13.34 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.43 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• In August, creation of Ethena’s USDe stablecoin reached a document excessive, with over $3.78 billion in new provide.
• USDe’s complete circulating provide has now climbed previous $12 billion, solidifying its place as the third-largest stablecoin by market capitalization.
• The month-to-month progress notably outpaced the $3.4 billion issuance of Tether’s market-leading USDT for a similar interval.

While You Were Sleeping

• Unified Crypto Lobbyists: Protect Software Developers, Senate, or We’re Out (CoinDesk): Over 110 organizations, builders and buyers instructed U.S. senators they’ll’t help the Clarity Act until software program builders and non-custodial service suppliers are shielded from legal responsibility when dangerous actors misuse their expertise.
• Health-Care Firm KindlyMD Plans $5B Equity Raise for Bitcoin Treasury (CoinDesk): Shares of the corporate, which not too long ago merged with bitcoin treasury agency Nakamoto, slid 12% Tuesday after unveiling plans to lift as much as $5 billion by an at-the-money fairness sale.
• Metaplanet Shares Jump 6% on International Stock Sale, Financing Moves (CoinDesk): The Japanese agency will search 130.3 billion yen ($880 million) from a global share sale, primarily for bitcoin purchases, whereas suspending warrant workout routines and redeeming bonds early to bolster its stability sheet.
• Markets Need Rules — Crypto Is No Different (Financial Times): Scott Duke Kominers, a professor at Harvard Business School, says crypto markets want guidelines to make sure predictability, property rights, transparency and honest competitors, arguing that with out them innovation falters and hypothesis dominates.
• Putin Acts Like He Doesn’t Care About Peace. Russia’s Economy Could Depend on It (CNBC): Military spending has propped up Russia’s financial system, however falling oil revenues, a swelling deficit and renewed inflation dangers are fueling analyst warnings of stagnation and even recession.
• Trump Wants European Troops in Ukraine. Europe’s Voters Aren’t Convinced. (The Wall Street Journal): Public opposition displays a need to keep away from repeating previous army failures, fears of nationwide armies getting overstretched and anxieties about being drawn right into a conflict with Russia.

In the Ether