BTC Price Rallies Into July as Derivatives Market Shrugs

By Francisco Rodrigues (All instances ET until indicated in any other case)

Bitcoin

has edged up 0.9% within the final 24 hours, recovering from a dip after its document month-to-month shut on the finish of June. July could carry the development ahead, if historic information is any signal of what is forward.

BTC has risen in all however three Julys up to now 10 years, with a mean enhance of round 7%, based on CoinGlass information. Further proof comes from market maker Wintermute, which plotted the common each day bitcoin funding charge — a proxy for investor sentiment — in opposition to spot returns since 2022. It discovered July is the one month that pairs comparatively robust positive factors with comparatively subdued sentiment.

In the previous three years, bitcoin returned greater than 0.3% a day on common whereas funding hugged zero through the month, based on a word the market maker shared with CoinDesk.

Of course, previous efficiency is just not indicative of the long run, and the greenback’s present weak point stands out as the check, on condition that it typically strikes in the wrong way to bitcoin. The DXY index, a measure of the U.S. foreign money in opposition to its friends, is at a three-year low and is nearing a loss of life cross on technical charts, an indicator that has constantly marked bottoms for it since 2008. Wither bitcoin?

Thursday’s U.S. payrolls report will in all probability to supply some clues, and assist sign when the Federal Reserve is prone to trim rates of interest. Chair Jerome Powell has maintained the central financial institution will “wait and learn” how tariffs form inflation, holding coverage in limbo.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs on key buying and selling companions looms, whereas the House is ready to vote on his so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” which might add as much as $3.3 trillion to the already inflated U.S. nationwide debt invoice after a razor-thin Senate passage.

On prime of that, company treasuries are piling in. Publicly listed corporations purchased roughly 131,000 BTC within the second quarter, an 18% leap that beat the 8% enhance in U.S. spot-ETF holdings. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 2: Shares of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK) are anticipated to start buying and selling on the Cboe BZX Exchange, making it the primary U.S.-listed ETF to mix SOL worth publicity with on-chain staking rewards.
  • July 15: Lynq is anticipated to launch its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement community for establishments. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq permits instantaneous settlement, steady yield accrual and improved capital effectivity.
• Macro
  • Day 3 of three: ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra, Portugal)
  • July 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada information on manufacturing and companies exercise.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.1
  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment information.
    • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. -1K
    • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -6K vs. Prev. -8K
  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance coverage information for the week ended June 28.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K
  • July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil information on manufacturing and companies exercise.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 49.1
    • Services PMI Prev. 49.6
  • July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (last) June U.S. information on manufacturing and companies exercise.
    • Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53
    • Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7
  • July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. companies sector information.
    • Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9
• Earnings (Estimates based mostly on FactSet information)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • GnosisDAO is voting on renewing its partnership with Nethermind for Gnosis Chain upkeep and growth, proposing 750,000 DAI funding for the primary 12 months from June, with 4% annual will increase. Voting ends July 2.
  • Radiant DAO is voting on probably compensating customers whose wallets had been drained through limitless token approvals within the October 2024 hack. If handed, a follow-up plan would define stablecoin conversions, declare contracts on Arbitrum and phased repayments. Voting ends July 2.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on decreasing the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This goals to match decreased voter participation and assist well-supported proposals move extra simply, with out affecting non-constitutional proposals, which stay at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded fee card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
• Unlocks
  • July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating provide value $10.58 million.
  • July 11: Immutable to unlock 1.31% of its circulating provide value $10.61 million.
  • July 12: Aptos to unlock 1.76% of its circulating provide value $51.69 million.
  • July 15: Starknet to unlock 3.79% of its circulating provide value $14.39 million.
  • July 15: Sei to unlock 1% of its circulating provide value $15.63 million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum to unlock 1.87% of its circulating provide value $31.76 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella , Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO) to be delisted from Binance.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation convention (previously identified as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique occasion held in Washington on Sept. 10 that enables basic counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to fulfill with public officers liable for crypto laws and regulatory oversight. Space is proscribed. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration by July 17.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC and ETH futures open curiosity stay flat at round $25 billion and $11 billion, respectively, exhibiting lack of curiosity from merchants as costs commerce and forwards and backwards in a slender vary.
• XRP’s open curiosity has ticked as much as a four-week excessive of $1.4 billion alongside flat-to-negative funding charges, which signifies bias for bearish bets.
• SOL, BCH, SUI, XLM and SHIB markets additionally confirmed adverse funding charges, whereas XMR exhibited bullish bias with close to 20% charges.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH choices danger reversals continued to point out an absence of clear directional bias in short- and near-term tenors, with gentle bullishness rising from September-October expiries.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.62% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $107,684.07 (24hrs: +1.09%)
• ETH is up 1.33% at $2,449.08 (24hrs: -0.36%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.36% at 3,007.13 (24hrs: -0.1%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 3%
• BTC funding charge is at 0.006% (6.5328% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.13% at 96.94
• Gold futures are unchanged at $3,350.50
• Silver futures are up 0.15% at $36.45
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.56% at 39,762.48
• Hang Seng closed up 0.62% at 24,221.41
• FTSE is up 0.26% at 8,808.17
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.68% at 5,318.56
• DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.91% at 44,494.94
• S&P 500 closed down 0.11% at 6,198.01
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.82% at 20,202.89
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.62% at 26,857.11
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 2,701.08
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury charge is up 3.6 bps at 4.285%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,256.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 22,710.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.15% at 44,873.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.65 (+0.17%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02277 (0.04%)
• Hashrate (seven-day shifting common): 878 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.44
• Total Fees: 4.19 BTC / $446,034
• CME Futures Open Interest: 146,945
• BTC priced in gold: 32.3 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.10%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin money has lately outperformed BTC and different main cryptocurrencies.
• Still, it stays locked in a broad vary recognized by trendlines connecting April 2024 and December 2024 highs and August 2024 and April 2025 lows.
• A possible breakout would verify a long-term bullish shift in momentum.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $373.30 (-7.65%), +2.98% at $384.44 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $335.33 (-4.33%), +2.54% at $343.85
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $192.53 (+6.2%), +0.97% at $194.40
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.31 (-2.69%), +3.05% at $21.96
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.70 (+0.13%), +2.42% at $16.08
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.27 (-0.27%), +3.19% at $11.63
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.25 (+1.05%), +0.12% at $17.27
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.08 (+0.45%), +2.89% at $11.40
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $23.09 (+1.54%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.42 (-8.57%), +3.08% at $36.51
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29 (+0.59%), -2.76% at $28.20

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily internet flows: -$342.2 million
• Cumulative internet flows: $48.61 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily internet flows: $40.7 million
• Cumulative internet flows: $4.27 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 4.11 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The variety of ETH deposited on Coinbase’s layer-2 blockchain, Base, by crypto bridges has crashed to 831,980 from 1.81 million a month in the past.
• The purpose for the exodus is just not identified.

While You Were Sleeping

• Iran Made Preparations to Mine the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Sources Say (Reuters): After Israel’s preliminary airstrikes, Iran loaded naval mines onto vessels, a transfer U.S. intelligence interpreted as severe preparation to blockade the essential Strait of Hormuz, based on two U.S. officers.
• Visa, Mastercard Race to Tame a $253 Billion Crypto Threat (Bloomberg): With stablecoin laws poised for presidential approval, Visa and Mastercard are ramping up integration efforts, framing the tokens not as threats however as enablers of recent use instances.
• Bitcoin CME Futures Premium Slides, Suggests Waning Institutional Appetite (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s CME futures premium has fallen to its lowest since October 2023, based on 10x Research. Combined with adverse funding charges, this alerts bearish sentiment and diminished arbitrage exercise.
• Stablecoin Push Gains Ground in China in New Challenge to U.S. (Bloomberg): Recent remarks from China’s central financial institution governor revived curiosity in stablecoins for world funds. Morgan Stanley’s Robin Xing proposed Hong Kong as a testing floor for offshore yuan tokens.
• Deutsche Bank’s DWS, Galaxy, Flow Traders Venture to Introduce German-Regulated Stablecoin (CoinDesk): The AllUnity three way partnership secured a BaFin license to launch EURAU, a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin that might be absolutely backed and supply institutional-grade transparency through proof-of-reserves and regulatory reporting.
• Trump Said Trade Deals Would Come Easy. Japan Is Proving Him Wrong. (The Wall Street Journal): Japanese officers say any commerce deal should decrease U.S. industry-specific tariffs, noting that failure to safe reduction might set off political backlash forward of Japan’s July 20 higher home election.

In the Ether