Now Reading: Gold price prediction right this moment: Where are gold rates headed on August 19, 2025 & the near-term? Here’s the outlook
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Gold price prediction right this moment: Where are gold rates headed on August 19, 2025 & the near-term? Here’s the outlook
Gold price prediction right this moment: Where are gold rates headed on August 19, 2025 & the near-term? Here’s the outlook
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Gold price prediction: Gold, in extremely short-term, can check the help round $3307 (MCX Gold October Rs 98,600)/$3290 (Rs 98,100) , however the draw back is proscribed. (AI picture)
Gold price prediction right this moment: Gold rates are anticipated to commerce in a spread, however the draw back is more likely to be restricted, say specialists. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what ranges traders ought to be careful for:Gold Performance:
- Spot gold traded between $3405 (August 11) and $3329 (August 14) in the week ending August 15. The steel was down 1.76% for the week, the first weekly loss after two straight weeks of weekly acquire.
- On August 18, spot gold fell almost 0.1% to shut at $3331 as traders monitored the high-stakes conferences in the US over the Ukraine battle.
Trump-Zelensky, Trump-Europe conferences:
- The Trump-Zelensky assembly at the Oval Office was concluded in a single day. Talks centred round offering safety assure to Ukraine. Later on, the US president Trump met with seven European leaders (Macron, Starmer, Meloni, Merz, von der Leyen, Stubb, and Rutte) who put forth a ceasefire as the first step in direction of attaining a long-lasting peace deal in Ukraine. They additionally insisted on a safety assure to Ukraine. Trump has confirmed that there can be a trilateral assembly between Ukraine, Russia and the US. It is being reported that the Kremlin has agreed to the proposed assembly, however the date isn’t confirmed. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will work with European allies and non-European nations on safety ensures for Ukraine.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- The US Dollar Index swung between 97.62 (August 13) and 99.32 (August 11) in the week ending August 15. It registered its second straight weekly loss because it closed at 97.85 on Friday, down 0.30% for the week. At the time of writing, the Index was seen at 98.20, up round 0.03%% on the day as the Index gained upward traction forward of the US FOMC minutes launch to shut round 0.3% larger at 98.17 on August 18.
- US 10-year yields edged larger by 3 bps to 4.32% in the final week as 2-year yields fell by 1 bps to three.75%, which steepened the yield curve. Ten-year yields have been famous at 4.32% at the time of writing.
CFTC:
- As per weekly CFTC knowledge, cash managers decreased their bullish gold bets by 7,585 net-long positions to 154,226 in the week ending August 12.
Fed Watch:
- The Fed’s Bostic mentioned after a 3-day tour of the Southeastern US he discovered that tariff strains have been actual and excessive borrowing prices have been squeezing enterprise earnings. He is inclined in direction of decreasing rates.
Hong Kong to announce gold buying and selling Hub plan by year-end:
- According to Financial Secretary Paul Chan of Hong Kong, the metropolis plans to unveil a plan to develop a global gold buying and selling centre which would come with supporting bodily supply as the City’s plans to construct a commodity buying and selling system ecosystem progresses forward.
Data roundup:
- NAHB Housing Market Index (August) launched on Monday got here in at 32 Vs the forecast of 34.
Upcoming knowledge and occasions:
- Investors eye Jackson Hope Symposium to be held from August 21 to August 23. The Fed Chair Powell’s speech is at 7:30 PM IST on August 22.
- ECB’s Ms Lagarde will communicate at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 23.
- The US knowledge to be launched this week embody housing begins (August 19), July 30 FOMC minutes (August 20), S&P Global US PMIs (August 21), main Index (August 21) and present house gross sales (August 21).
- China’s PBoC is anticipated to maintain its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime rates unchanged at 3% and three.5% respectively on August 20.
- Eurozone’s PMIs shall be launched on August 21, whereas Germany’s 2Q remaining GDP shall be out on August 22.
- Japan will launch its PMIs and nationwide CPI on August 21 and August 22 respectively.
Gold ETF:
- Notwithstanding a 1.8% weekly decline in gold costs, complete recognized world gold ETF holdings surged to a contemporary 2-year excessive of 92.66 MOz on August 15. Gold ETF holdings are up 11.84% YTD. It is to be famous that ETF holdings reached a file excessive of 111.25 MOz on October 15, 2020, throughout Covid days on protected haven demand and monetary and financial stimulus measures taken by world central banks and governments.
USDINR:
- USDINR fell as Trump held again on his additional tariff threats. In addition, proposed modifications by the Indian authorities in the GST construction, as introduced on August 15, are additionally being seen as decreasing tariff impression to some extent. The proposed modifications will see the variety of GST classes diminished from 4 to 2, with most items that have been taxed at 12% and 28% now taxed at the decrease charge of 5% and 18%, respectively.
Gold outlook:
- In the very short-term, traders’ focus shall be primarily on two elements: Geopolitical developments regarding Ukraine and Jackson Hole Symposium. The presence of seven European leaders at the assembly with Trump has lent some extra help to the explanation for Ukraine. The proposed trilateral assembly could additional alleviate geopolitical tensions to some extent in the very short-term; nonetheless, the mechanism of safety assure and the stances of the main actors Viz Ukraine, Russia and Europe regarding one another stay sticky factors. The Russian President Putin has clearly laid down the situations of a ceasefire that embody recognition of Eastern Ukraine’s Donbas areas gained by Russia as Russian territories and demilitarization of Ukraine. Ukraine has maintained that it gained’t cede its areas. Security ensures by NATO could additional complicate the scenario in the area.
- Thus, whereas gold, in extremely short-term, can check the help round $3307 (
MCX Gold October Rs 98,600)/$3290 (Rs 98,100) , draw back is proscribed except we see some important and long-lasting optimistic developments in the Ukrainian battle. Worsening US and world economies and charge minimize expectations would cushion the fall in gold costs. Resistance is at $3350 (Rs 100,000)/$3375 (Rs 100,700).
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the inventory market and different asset lessons given by specialists are their very own. These opinions don’t characterize the views of The Times of India)
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