Gold prices hit Rs 1 lakh! What’s the outlook for gold and should you buy or sell the yellow metallic? Explained

With gold crossing the Rs 1 lakh mark – the essential query in the minds of buyers is – is the rally sustainable? (AI picture)

Gold prices have been skyrocketing and how! Gold MCX futures have breached the Rs 1 lakh mark, a historic first for the yellow metallic. Gold has at all times been seen as a protected haven asset in instances of uncertainty. Concerns over world financial development, escalating China-US commerce conflict are driving the rise in gold prices, with a weaker greenback having added to the momentum.
Experts consider that basically markets are pricing in elevated geopolitical dangers, fuelled by US President Donald Trump’s commerce coverage tensions and stagflation issues which might proceed to drive additional positive factors for the yellow metallic.
Central banks round the world have been on a gold shopping for spree for a number of quarters and have shored up their gold reserves to new highs. Incidentally, RBI has not solely been shopping for gold, it has additionally been shifting vital portions again to India.

Central banks on gold shopping for spree

But with the valuable metallic crossing the Rs 1 lakh mark – the essential query in the minds of buyers is – is the gold rally sustainable? How a lot steam is left on this rally? Also, should you be shopping for gold at such excessive ranges, or is it time to ebook earnings? We ask specialists:

Rise of Gold

Naveen Mathur, Director – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers factors out that gold has seen distinctive efficiency since the begin of the yr. It has risen over 21% until date, touching new report highs greater than 20 instances this yr.
According to a PTI report, 20 years in the past in April 2005, gold was buying and selling at Rs 6,267 per 10 grams on MCX. It has risen steadily by numerous world financial rises comparable to the 2008 monetary meltdown, COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine battle.
In April 2025, gold hit its all-time excessive degree of Rs 1,00,000 for the August month supply, which is a 41% surge in simply 12 months.

Gold Price

Abhilash Koikara, Head Forex & Commodity, Nuvama Professional Clients Group has a goal for gold prices at $3,930 ranges in greenback phrases. According to Koikara, on MCX gold prices can check Rs 1,12,000 ranges by December 2025.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity at Ventura sees gold persevering with to be a horny funding guess below the present world circumstances. Price predictions for gold are being made on these premises and can fluctuate based mostly on subsequent modifications in the market circumstances. Factors like inflation, central financial institution demand, and financial uncertainty will proceed to affect gold prices, he stated.
“We believe that the prices in this euphoria may rise sharply this year to $3700 an ounce but the target by December 2025 should be around $3200 – $3300. In rupee terms the target for December 2025 should be close to Rs 92,000 – Rs 93,000 per 10 grams (due to expected rupee appreciation) with USDINR expected to be in the range of 83.50 – 84.50 by December 2025,” he instructed TOI.
After the yr finish 2025 corrections, with the impression of tariffs and financial slowdown throughout the globe, we might witness the protected haven demand for gold to surge in the yr 2026 whereby we count on gold prices to surpass $4000 an oz. (Ranging between $3800 – $4200) an oz., he added.
Naveen Mathur of Anand Rathi nonetheless sees room for a 10-15% rise in gold prices from present ranges. $3800 – 3850 per oz in spot translating to ranges of Rs 1,05,000 – 1,08,000 per 10 gm in the home markets, nonetheless seems potential until December 2025 finish, he says.

MCX Gold VS BSE Sensex

According to Mathur, the present rally has been too quick as the rise from Rs 90,000 to Rs 1 lakh was seen solely below the final 12 buying and selling days whereas the run from Rs 80,000 to Rs 90,000 took about 77 days. “This indicates price corrections of up to 5-10 % which could be seen in the coming weeks,” he instructed TOI.
Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd believes gold might inch in the direction of $3350-3500 and consolidate close to the similar. “However, looking at the momentum, a rally towards $3700 over the long term can also not be ruled out. Assuming USDINR at 85, on the domestic front, immediate range is near Rs 96500- 1,00,000. From a longer term perspective, Rs 1,06,000 could be possible,” he says.
Also Read | Gold prices at report excessive! Sovereign gold bond buyers weigh revenue reserving with 221% returns

Gold @ Rs 1 lakh: Should you buy or sell?

Abhilash Koikara of Nuvama Professional Clients Group advocates shopping for gold on dips. “We may witness shallow corrections in the coming days till $3,380 (approximately Rs 96,800)- $3,300 (approximately Rs 94,800) and such corrections must be used as a buying opportunity for medium/long term horizon for the specified targets,” he tells TOI.
NS Ramaswamy of Ventura says that with gold touching Rs 1 lakh, buyers might both maintain their lengthy place or ebook earnings to provoke a buy place in the vary of Rs 92,500 – Rs 94,000 ranges.

Asset Class Comparison

“Fresh buying at the present levels of Rs 98,000 to Rs 1,00,000 lakh is not recommended. Bottom fishing could be done at Rs 92,500 to Rs 94,000 levels,” he says.
Manav Modi of Motilal Oswal additionally advocates the similar technique for gold buyers. “If you are a new investor in gold, then a buy on dips strategy is the best way forward. Investors should definitely not sell, because the long term outlook is strong. For existing gold investors, partial profit booking and then re-entry at dips may be the right strategy,” he tells TOI.
Anand Rathi’s Naveen Mathur says gold stays a long run shopping for alternative for buyers. “We suggest investors continue to buy gold at regular intervals considering it as a portfolio diversifier against other asset classes from a long term perspective,” he concludes.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the inventory market and different asset lessons given by specialists are their very own. These opinions don’t characterize the views of The Times of India)