Poland is ready to hold a Presidential runoff election on Sunday (June 1, 2025) between two candidates providing starkly completely different visions for the nation’s future.
The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who’s ending his second and last time period. The end result will decide whether or not Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots extra totally towards liberal, pro-European insurance policies. An exit ballot by Ipsos can be launched when polls shut on Sunday at 9 p.m. native time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2% factors. Final outcomes are anticipated on Monday (June 2, 2025.)
Whoever wins may be anticipated to both assist or hinder the agenda of the centrist authorities of Prime Minister Donald Tusk thanks to the Presidential energy to veto legal guidelines.
An unpredictable vote on the time of tensions
The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions pushed by Russia’s war in neighbouring Ukraine, safety issues throughout Europe and inner debates concerning the rule of legislation.
It follows a primary spherical on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski gained greater than 31% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned practically 30%. Eleven different candidates have been eradicated.
Opinion polls present the 2 males operating neck and neck. Other elements add to the unpredictability. Mr. Nawrocki did significantly better in the primary spherical than surveys had predicted, indicating that his power was underestimated. On the opposite hand, giant numbers of Poles overseas have registered to vote in the second spherical, which might assist Mr. Trzaskowski.
Mr. Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was tapped as by the nationwide conservative Law and Justice celebration regardless of an absence of political expertise or celebration membership. But that is seen as performing in his favour, because the celebration, which ruled for 2015-2023, seeks to refresh its picture earlier than a Parliamentary election in 2027.
Mr. Nawrocki’s supporters describe him because the embodiment of conventional, patriotic Polish values. They consider U.S. President Donald Trump‘s assist for him will strengthen Poland’s ties with the United States and make the nation safer.
Mr. Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw’s Mayor and an in depth ally of Mr. Tusk. A deputy chief of Civic Platform, a pro-European Union celebration, he has been outstanding in nationwide politics for years. This is his second Presidential bid after narrowly dropping to Duda in 2020.
Supporters credit score him with modernising Warsaw by way of infrastructure, public transit growth and cultural investments. He is broadly seen as pragmatic and targeted on strengthening ties with different European nations.
Mr. Nawrocki not too long ago obtained a lift from Mr. Trump and different U.S. conservatives, who see the Polish election as a part of a world battle between liberal and populist right-wing forces.
His marketing campaign has echoed themes widespread on the American proper, together with skepticism towards EU forms and emphasis on Christian id. His supporters really feel that Mr. Trzaskowski, together with his pro-EU views, would hand over management of key Polish points to Paris and Berlin.
Mr. Nawrocki additionally has been endorsed by the Trump administration and conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Many European centrists are rooting for Mr. Trzaskowski, seeing in him somebody who would defend democracy because it faces strain from authoritarian forces throughout the globe. He has obtained the assist of recent centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan — who not too long ago defeated a far-right nationalist.
Rafal Nawrocki’s scandals
Mr. Nawrocki has confronted numerous scandals over the previous months, however it’s not clear that they’re hurting him. In truth, they could have the other impact. Many right-wing voters do not consider the allegations and accuse the media of utilizing its energy to damage him, creating what seems to be a rallying impact round him.
Mr. Nawrocki himself has acknowledged that he took half in an organised brawl together with soccer hooligans in 2009. A former boxer, he mentioned he has taken half in varied types of “noble male battle” in his life. Polish media have additionally reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution.
Mr. Tusk accused Law and Justice celebration chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski of tapping Mr. Nawrocki regardless of questions on his previous.
“You knew about everything, Jaroslaw. About the connections with the gangsters, about fixing girls,'” Mr. Tusk wrote on X. “The entire responsibility for this catastrophe falls on you!”
Key points at stake
Security and war in Ukraine: With Russia’s war in Ukraine in its fourth 12 months, Polish voters are acutely attuned to problems with regional safety. Both candidates assist continued backing for Ukraine, however to completely different levels. Mr. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine ought to by no means be a part of NATO, whereas Mr. Trzaskowski believes Ukraine ought to be allowed to be a part of someday when the present war is over.
Rule of legislation and democracy: Mr. Trzaskowski has pledged to assist the restoration of judicial independence and restore relations with the EU, which seen modifications by Law and Justice as anti-democratic. Mr. Tusk has tried to change some laws, however has confronted resistance from the the outgoing President Duda. Mr. Nawrocki, whereas much less outspoken than his celebration patrons, is seen as doubtless to protect Law and Justice’s modifications that politicised the courts.
Women’s rights: Abortion stays a divisive problem in Poland, particularly after a near-total ban was imposed beneath Law and Justice. Mr. Trzaskowski helps loosening restrictions and has backed proposals to legalise abortion up to 12 weeks. Mr. Nawrocki opposes any liberalisation and has campaigned as a defender of conventional conservative values.
Published – May 31, 2025 01:06 pm IST
