The great Indian American dream falters under US President Donald Trump

The crackdown itself shouldn’t be new. The Joe Biden administration, too, had tightened guidelines in response to public unease over excessive immigration, however under Trump, the pitch of restrictions has grown sharper. This has impacted many Indian aspirants with the American dream. Mint explores the most recent traits in US visa issuances.

Study: Stalled ambitions

The hardest hit amongst US visa seekers are potential college students to the world’s largest economic system. The variety of US F-1 pupil visas issued to Indians fell by 31.2% year-on-year to only 11,484 between January and May 2025. This decline was considerably steeper than the 11.8% drop for Chinese college students, a bunch that was the most important supply of pupil visas throughout the identical interval. Overall, pupil visa issuances noticed a 17% decline.

Beyond fewer issuances, the Trump administration has been extra aggressive in terminating visas, even for minor violations. “The administration principally terminated the visa standing of many college students due to some (minor) violation prior to now, even when it bought dismissed, though it’s now not occurring at current,” mentioned Cyrus Mehta, founder, Cyrus D. Mehta & Partners, a New York-based immigration legislation agency.

Moreover, the outlook for the second half of 2025 stays bleak resulting from latest delays attributable to a month-long pause on visa interviews and new social media vetting for all candidates.

Work: Hazy terrain

Indian nationals have been issued 63,323 H-1B work visas throughout January to May 2025, which is 11.1% fewer than the identical interval in 2024. However, regardless of the decline, Indians proceed to nook a lion’s share on this section at 74.8% of all H-1B issuances. China (11.3%) and the Philippines (1.3%) are distant followers. The H-1B visa is a non-immigrant visa that enables US employers to make use of international employees in specialised occupations quickly. The critics of the visa argue that it undercuts the employability of American employees; the supporters contend that it helps entice high international expertise to the US.

The Trump administration, which has a motto of ‘Make America Great Again’ and promised extra jobs for Americans, has been squeezing H-1B visa issuances. The US authorities steeply raised H-1B registration charges for 2025-26 and can also be eyeing scrapping the present lottery system in favour of salary-based alternatives that might put entry-level graduates at a drawback.

Travel: Still holding up

Visitor visas, largely used for tourism and enterprise, haven’t confronted comparable disruptions but. In reality, India turned the largest supply market within the post-covid interval and remained so till May 2025. Between October and May 2025, B-1/B-2 visa issuances to Indians rose 4.4% year-on-year to 684,613, whilst the whole variety of guests to the US fell 1.8% year-on-year throughout this era.

In latest years, extra Indians have visited the US, which coincided with India’s post-pandemic journey growth. Before the pandemic, China was the most important supply of tourists to the US; within the post-pandemic years, India overtook China. While in 2023-24 (October-September), Brazil noticed the largest journey visa issuances, India pulled by way of in 2024-25 (from October till May) to report the very best B-1/B-2 visa issuances. 

However, going forward, all travellers and college students should cough up a further $250 in visa charges, ranging from October, which may influence the numbers.

Elite expertise: Going sturdy

Despite the deterioration within the total immigration scenario within the US, alternatives stay for high expertise—the crème de la crème. One such alternative is thru the O-1 visa pathway, a three-year non permanent work visa for people who reveal extraordinary capacity or achievement of their fields. This has gained traction amongst international nationals, together with Indians. Though extra pricey and selective, it presents a path to work within the US with out the precariousness of the H-1B lottery system.

And the issuance of O-1 visas is on the rise. Issuances to Indians climbed to 687 in January-May 2025, from simply 198 in the identical interval in 2018. Out of the 8,202 visas issued in 2025, Indians have been the third-largest nationality after the British (1,228) and the Chinese (707) in securing them.

Besides extraordinary expertise, cash can even open a straightforward pathway to the US. The Trump administration just lately proposed the ‘Gold Card’ programme that gives to grant rich international nationals everlasting residency and citizenship in trade for a $5 million funding.

Economic influence: Future tense?

The second stint of the Trump administration has upended many earlier insurance policies, and the aggressive visa guidelines have led to sharp criticism from a number of quarters in addition to authorized challenges. Moreover, there’s a sharp financial influence associated to the curtailment of worldwide college students’ entry to the US. Preliminary projections from NAFSA: Association of International Educators, a US-based non-profit group that tracks worldwide training, counsel that the US may see over 170,000 fewer international college students in 2025-26 (Oct-Sep). This may end in almost $7 billion in misplaced income and price the nation 60,000 jobs in cities with native universities.

While Indians are nonetheless inquisitive about pursuing training within the US, they’re conserving different choices open as nicely towards the present backdrop. “Families are widening their horizons, with the UK, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Japan, and Singapore all rising as sturdy issues,” said Namita Mehta, president and partner at The Red Pen.