As the sweltering warmth of summer season reaches its peak, our ideas flip in the direction of the approaching wet season. Data collected by climate stations and rain gauges for over a century inform us that this season begins with the arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on June 1, give or take per week. Weather forecasting has turn out to be extra correct in recent times, and it’s predicted that the monsoon will attain Kerala round May 27 this 12 months.
Southwesterly winds touring over the Indian Ocean, together with sturdy air currents touring over the Arabian Sea from East Africa (the Somali Jet Stream), carry moisture to our lands, refreshing our senses and lightening our moods.
In at the moment’s world, these winds additionally carry with them the promise of renewable energy. An consciousness of local weather change has introduced readability to the pressing want for reducing our dependence on energy derived from fossil fuels. India’s place right here is especially acute. Nearly 75% of our electrical energy comes from coal. As part of an bold plan to shift to low carbon energy, the Central Electricity Authority goals to have 121 GW of put in wind capability by 2032, constructing upon an present capability of 45 GW.
Fossil fuel-fired energy crops can generate electrical energy when it’s wanted. Renewable sources similar to wind have variations, and this results in decrease capability utilisation. Therefore predicting when wind can be in movement is essential to creating the perfect use of investments in wind energy. The purpose is to generate the utmost quantity of electrical energy for a grid whereas burning the least quantity of fossil fuels. Seasonal local weather forecasts are needed for this planning and begin on the regional degree. For instance, the state of Rajasthan has very poor winds from October to December.
Monsoons are sturdy drivers of local weather. The cool gusty monsoon winds could be predicted and modelled, simply as rains could be. Cities want extra energy throughout summer season, when agricultural demand is low. Power generated through the monsoons is a boon to the agriculture sector, as kharif crops (planted in June, harvested in October) take up extra electrical energy than the winter rabi crop. At windy areas such because the Western Ghats, a wind turbine generates 70% of its annual energy output between June and September.
However, there may be a substantial amount of variability within the velocity of floor winds throughout this season. Anticipating this variation is of nice use in minimising deficit or surplus in energy technology. This has led to the refinement of numerical climate prediction fashions, which work at a decision of some hundred metres, a kilometre, and so forth. Using such fashions, the National Institute of Wind Energy in Chennai has developed a Wind Atlas of India, a really great tool for planning future wind farms.
What about AI? The amount (and high quality) of high-density knowledge from radar and satellite tv for pc photographs has grown quickly. Densification strategies similar to Google’s MetNet3 are used for integrating this with measurements together with wind pace, temperature, and many others., from a comparatively small variety of climate stations. This permits the mannequin to estimate wind speeds within the areas between stations, leading to a high-resolution wind pace map derived from a small quantity of immediately measured knowledge.
This article is written in collaboration with Sushil Chandani, who works in molecular modelling.
Published – May 18, 2025 05:45 am IST
