Trump’s Iran selection: Bunker-busting bomb or the telephone; Tehran on edge

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Trump’s Iran choice: Bunker-busting bomb or the phone; Tehran on edge
File picture: US airmen take a look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. (US Air Force by way of AP)

US President Donald Trump is going through the most consequential overseas coverage choice of his presidency: whether or not to instantly enter the escalating warfare between Israel and Iran by serving to Israel destroy Iran’s closely fortified Fordo nuclear enrichment site-an act that might scuttle nuclear talks, provoke a wider regional warfare, or reset Iran’s nuclear program by pressure.Trump has insisted a nuclear take care of Iran continues to be “achievable,” but additionally warned Tehran residents to evacuate, posting ominously on Truth Social: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

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Why it issues

  • As per an NYT report, Fordo, buried deep beneath a mountain, can solely be reached by the US navy’s 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator-nicknamed the “bunker buster”-which is delivered completely by B-2 stealth bombers. Israel doesn’t possess both.
  • A US strike would formally plunge America right into a battle Trump campaigned twice to keep away from. It would finish negotiations Iran says it’s nonetheless open to, and it could check Trump’s overseas coverage instincts-balancing “America First” noninterventionism along with his want to look powerful and obtain overseas coverage wins.
  • Iran’s overseas minister Abbas Araghchi cautioned, “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.” He added, “It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu.”

The large image: Tehran on edgeThe Trump administration has deployed further navy belongings to the area and is now debating how a lot additional to go. Trump reduce brief his G7 journey in Canada and returned to Washington, saying, “As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something.”

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims Israel now has full air superiority over Tehran and declared the objective: “the elimination of the nuclear programme, the elimination of ballistic missile production capability, and the elimination of the axis of terrorism.”Israel’s airstrikes on Tehran expanded on the fifth day of escalating battle, following Monday’s warnings for roughly 300,000 residents to evacuate earlier than deliberate assaults.By Tuesday morning, folks had been seen leaving the metropolis. Shops and the historic Grand Bazaar had been closed. Despite this, Iranian authorities claimed “everything is under control” and stated no official steerage had been issued. Zoom in: The Fordo issueSo far, Israel has not destroyed Fordo-the most resilient a part of Iran’s nuclear community.Fordo is the “crux of this thing,” says Brett McGurk, who served below 4 presidents. Destroying it could severely set again Iran’s nuclear ambitions-but solely a US bomb can do it. Military analysts agree it could take a number of precision strikes by American B-2 bombers in a coordinated mission.According to the New York Times, the Pentagon has already rehearsed this state of affairs extensively, concluding it requires a sequence of bombs “down the same hole.”

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What they’re saying

  • Trump: “I’m not looking for a ceasefire, we’re looking at better than a ceasefire.” The US President stated he was on the lookout for “an end, a real end, not a ceasefire,” including that he needed a “complete give-up” by Iran.
  • Lindsey Graham (R-SC): “If diplomacy is not successful… I will urge President Trump to go all in… If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”
  • Yoav Gallant, former Israeli protection minister: “The job has to be done, by Israel, by the United States.”
  • Iran’s Araghchi: “If the aggression stops, it is obvious that the ground will be prepared for a return to diplomacy.”
  • Michael Singh, Washington Institute: “Iran isn’t going to be able to match Israel from a military standpoint. So it’s going to look for other advantages.”
  • G7 leaders launched a joint assertion: “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and referred to as for “broader de-escalation.”
  • China on Tuesday accused Trump of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, saying he was “pouring oil” on an already unstable state of affairs after he warned Tehran residents to “immediately evacuate”.
  • Chinese overseas ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated: “Fanning the flames, pouring oil, making threats and mounting pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and widen the conflict. “The Chinese aspect calls on all related events, particularly nations with particular affect on Israel, to shoulder their duties, take rapid measures to de-escalate tensions, and forestall the battle from increasing and spreading.”

Between the strainsTrump is navigating intense political pressure-from hawkish Republicans urging action, MAGA conservatives warning against endless wars, and foreign allies demanding restraint. He appears to be calibrating a strategy that allows him to leverage military might as a threat while still preserving the illusion of diplomatic off-ramps.Tucker Carlson, once a loyal Trump surrogate, blasted any move toward direct involvement, calling the president “complicit in the act of war.” Trump snapped back: “Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”Meanwhile, populist voices like Charlie Kirk and Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene warn that deeper involvement risks alienating Trump’s grassroots support. “This will cause a massive schism in MAGA,” Kirk posted.

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What Trump could do

  • Sources told Reuters that Tehran had asked Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to urge Trump to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In return, Iran would show flexibility in nuclear negotiations, according to two Iranian and three regional sources.
  • Diplomatic play: Push for a deal with Iran under the threat of force. Trump said, “They should talk, and they should talk immediately.”
  • Military leverage: Keep the bunker-buster threat alive, potentially use it if diplomacy fails. As the only country with the means to destroy Fordo, the US holds the decisive card.
  • And Trump has already shown he can say no to Israel: he blocked Netanyahu’s request to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, per AP sources.

What’s nextIf Iran halts its retaliatory missile fire and signals deeper engagement on nuclear talks, Trump may hold off. If not, he could greenlight a targeted strike on Fordo-a move that would shift the war’s momentum but escalate risks dramatically.The Iranians, according to WSJ sources, canceled planned nuclear talks with the US over the weekend but remain open to negotiations-if Washington publicly distances itself from Israeli strikes.Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, told Fox News that US forces remain “postured defensively,” but noted, “What you’re watching in real time is peace through strength and America First.”The backside lineTrump has a stark choice: force diplomacy with the threat of war-or become the president who ordered bunker-busters into the heart of Iran. With Israel demanding more support and Tehran dangling diplomacy, the next 48 hours could decide whether Trump goes down in history as a peacemaker-or a war president.(With inputs from companies)

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