US-India trade pact: Markets brace for July 9 tariff deadline; Q1 earnings, FII flows to drive sentiment

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Equity buyers are gearing up for a doubtlessly risky week because the 90-day suspension interval of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, elevating uncertainty over India-US trade relations. Market specialists consider that the end result of the trade negotiations shall be a key set off, particularly for sectors like IT, pharma, and auto which can be delicate to world commerce.Trump had imposed a 26 per cent further import obligation on Indian items getting into the US earlier this yr, however enforcement was deferred for 90 days. As the deadline nears, merchants are cautious, awaiting readability on whether or not the levies shall be totally carried out, renegotiated, or additional delayed.“This week holds significant importance not only for Indian markets but for global equities as well,” mentioned Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd, in accordance to information company PTI. “The most anticipated event is the outcome of the US trade (tariff) deadline on July 9, which could shape global trade dynamics. Investors will also closely monitor the release of the US FOMC minutes on the same day”, Mishra added.Meanwhile, focus will even flip to company earnings, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Avenue Supermarts scheduled to kick off the Q1FY26 reporting season. Their outcomes are anticipated to set the tone for broader market sentiment.Vinod Nair, head of analysis at Geojit Financial Services, was quoted by PTI as saying that any beneficial growth on the India-US trade entrance might present a contemporary enhance to investor confidence. “Considering the broader indices are currently trading at elevated levels, market participants will closely watch for signs of earnings catch-up from upcoming Q1 results,” he mentioned.Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services added, “Overall, we expect the market to remain in consolidation mode, awaiting clarity on the India-US trade deal, while stock-specific action would continue on the back of Q1FY26 business updates.”The previous week noticed the BSE Sensex fall by 626.01 factors or 0.74 per cent, and the NSE Nifty declined by 176.8 factors or 0.68 per cent.Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows are additionally anticipated to stay risky. “Resumption of FII buying will hinge on two things,” mentioned V Ok Vijayakumar, chief funding strategist, Geojit Investments. “One, if a trade deal happens between India and the US, that will be positive for markets and FII flows. Two, Q1 FY26 result indications. If the results indicate earnings recovery, that will be positive. Disappointment on these factors can impact the market”, Vijayakumar added.Apart from these, buyers are seemingly to observe Brent crude value actions and rupee-dollar fluctuations, which might additional affect buying and selling dynamics by the week.