US tariffs impact on jobs: Nearly 3 lakh workers at risk in textiles and gems? Here’s what experts say

The steep tariffs imposed on Indian exports to the US have triggered sharp debate amongst staffing specialists, with some flagging the risk of speedy job losses and others suggesting that India’s home demand and commerce diversification may soften the blow.“The recent imposition of additional US tariffs is expected to have a direct and substantial impact on India’s employment landscape. This will especially impact those industries relying heavily on the US market for business continuity and growth,” Genius HRTech founder, chairman and managing director R P Yadav advised PTI.Yadav recognized textiles, auto parts, agriculture, and gems and jewelry as probably the most susceptible sectors, warning that micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) will take up the heaviest shock. He estimated that 2,00,000 to 3,00,000 jobs are at speedy risk, with textiles alone—being labour-intensive—probably shedding as many as 1,00,000 positions if the tariff regime stays in pressure for over six months.He additional cautioned that gems and jewelry hubs in Surat and SEEPZ, Mumbai, may additionally face widespread job losses because of shrinking demand and rising prices in the US market.However, not all experts foresee an employment disaster. TeamLease Services Senior Vice President Balasubramanian Anantha Narayanan argued that India’s reliance on home consumption makes its job market much less susceptible than China’s.“At this point in time, we aren’t seeing any signs of a slowdown or loss of jobs. This also by extension means that our jobs are largely in service of domestic demand too, with the exception of some sectors like ITeS among others. Our exports to the USA are USD 87 billion, which is roughly about 2.2 per cent of our overall GDP. Largely pharma, electronics etc. won’t be affected for now, which will further limit the export exposure to industries such as textiles, gems and jewellery among others,” he mentioned, quoted PTI.He additionally famous that the tariffs are but to take impact, leaving area for doable negotiations. “On the other side, we’ve also had several positives by way of the recently closed FTA with the UK and other countries. Even if these US tariffs do come about, we’ll definitely figure out a way of redirecting or diversifying our trade to other markets. Therefore, at this point in time, we aren’t seeing any signs of a slowdown or loss of jobs. It’s an evolving situation and we’ll get to know more in due course of time,” Narayanan mentioned.According to him, the broader drag on employment stems from world consumption slowdown, tariff uncertainties, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.CIEL HR MD and CEO Aditya Mishra mentioned the tariff situation is unsettling exporters in sectors deeply tied to the American market—together with electronics, textiles, gems and jewelry, auto parts, leather-based, footwear, shrimp and engineering items.“Even industries outside the direct tariff ambit, like pharmaceuticals, are feeling the ripple effect through costlier upstream chemicals and materials,” Mishra mentioned. He added that uncertainty may persist via the third quarter of this monetary 12 months as negotiations unfold.While Mishra doesn’t anticipate widespread layoffs, he famous that firms are already adopting cost-control measures—reducing discretionary spends, streamlining manufacturing, freezing hiring, and placing strain on momentary and contractual roles. “The immediate pressure will be on temporary and contract roles, particularly shop-floor workers, artisans, sales and logistics staff, and some mid-level managers in export-led units. This will have a cascading effect on thousands of MSMEs in the supply chain, which collectively account for a large share of employment,” he warned.Mishra additionally pointed to potential spillover dangers for IT and world functionality centres (GCCs). (*3*) he mentioned.