XRP Faces Price Crash Risk; $3 Is the Level for Bulls to Beat, Price Charts Indicate

“You’re not bullish enough!” an XRP fanatic exclaimed on X final week after Ripple, which makes use of the token for cross-border transactions, stated the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has dropped its case towards the firm.

Many others shared the pleasure, and understandably so, as the conclusion of the long-standing authorized battle lifted a weight that hindered XRP’s relative efficiency throughout the 2021 bull run. Plus, there’s XRP ETF hype and hopes that the token might turn into part of the U.S. strategic reserve.

That stated, current worth motion doesn’t mirror the optimism, with XRP rangebound between $2.30-$2.50 and key momentum indicators flashing warnings of a serious bearish shift in pattern.

XRP surged over 11% to $2.59 final Wednesday, cheering the SEC information. Since then, the observe by has been something however bullish, regardless of optimism that anticipated reciprocal commerce tariffs from President Donald Trump on April 2 could possibly be extra measured than initially anticipated.

Three-line break chart

The first indicator signaling bearish pattern reversal is the three-line break chart, which focuses solely on worth actions whereas filtering out short-term noise. That helps determine pattern adjustments as recommended by the market and never arbitrary or discretionary buying and selling guidelines.

The chart consists of vertical blocks known as strains or bars (inexperienced and pink). A bull reversal occurs when a inexperienced bar happens with costs transferring greater than the highest level of the final three pink bars. A bearish shift is represented by the emergence of a pink bar that goes past the lowest level of the earlier three inexperienced bars.

In XRP’s case, a brand new pink bar occurred early this month in the weekly timeframe and has held intact following the SEC information. The “weekly” side means this chart aggregates worth data over per week.

The new pink bar signifies a bearish shift in momentum. Similar patterns characterised the beginnings of extended bear markets in 2021 and early 2018.

MACD

The transferring common convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, used to gauge pattern power and pattern adjustments, is producing deeper bars under the zero line on the weekly chart. That can be an indication of strengthening draw back momentum.

The indicator flipped constructive in November, after which costs surged from $1 to above $3.

The 5- and 10-week easy transferring averages (SMAs) have crossed bearish as nicely, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the draw back.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger bands — volatility bands positioned two commonplace deviations above and under XRP’s 20-week SMA — have widened in response to the sharp worth rally in late 2024 and early this 12 months.

Historically, costs have tended to transfer decrease following the sharp widening of the Bollinger bands, as noticed after mid-2021 and early 2018.

When bullish?

A agency transfer to $3, the excessive registered on March 2, would invalidate the bearish setup, negating the decrease highs sample to counsel a renewed bullish technical outlook.

Some analysts count on XRP to attain as excessive as $10 by the finish of this decade.